Downstream Predictability of the Path of Severe Wind Producing MCSs Using RUC Analysis Data

A method for predicting the track of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is developed, based upon meteorological parameters in the path of the systems. Rapid Update Cycle model analysis from the years 2007 through 2011 were used to gather meteorological data for 94 MCS events. An artificial neural network model was developed to predict whether the MCS will track to the “Right”, “Left”, or stay on its current path. The most important parameters to predict the track of an MCS in this model are precipitable water, most unstable CAPE, 700hPa temperature, surface-500hPa mean wind, low-level equivalent potential temperature difference, and 700-500hPa lapse rate. The model produced a threat score of 0.30 and a Heidke skill score of 0.16 which demonstrates relatively small skill but compares favorably to similar warm season forecasts. When considering the prediction of each class, the model proved to be skillful when predicting “Left” and “Right” classes while it did not skillfully predict the “Middle” class. Sensitivity analysis revealed that surface-500hPa mean wind was the most influential meteorological parameter for forecasting the track of MCSs, with smaller (higher) values giving a greater chance for MCSs to track in the “Middle” and “Right” (“Left”). This relationship may help forecasters improve decision support services and issuances of convective watches. Future work may be able to develop a model with better skill through the use of a higher resolution model or through stratifying MCS cases into subsets of similar environments

“Sounding” Like Lake-Effect Snow: Evaluating the Thermodynamic and Synoptic Setup of Northwest Indiana Lake-Effect Events Using Local Profiles and Numerical Modeling

Lake-effect snow presents significant hazards for Northwest Indiana, which necessitates the need for accurate forecasts for these events. Recent radiosonde observations were taken routinely with radiosonde launches by Valparaiso University’s Aviation Team surrounding lake-effect events. From these soundings, thermodynamic environments are analyzed in conjunction with numerical simulations and official Green Bay soundings of 12 lake-effect precipitation events. This study will use the data from the sounding profiles and from numerical simulations to determine similarities and differences within the thermodynamic and synoptic environments surrounding these events. Through analysis of these pre-storm local environments, unique thresholds will be identified in environmental parameters associated with the setup and formation of lake-effect events over the southern Lake Michigan region. Creating a mean sounding for Northwest Indiana of these lake-effect setups would be optimal for aiding forecasts of similar future events. This analysis should allow observation of model biases and enhance the ability to predict lake-effect snow

Archival ethics: The truth of the matter

This essay explores the question of whether records professionals are as aware of the ethical dimensions of their work as they should be. It consider first the historical and professional context of archival ethics, then examines a recent case about business archives involving the author that suggests the need for renewed attention to professional ethics, and concludes with a discussion about how archivists might reconsider the ethical dimensions of their work

The Early Years: Lyman Spitzer, Jr. and the Physics of Star Formation

The discovery of the interstellar medium and the early work of Lyman Spitzer, Jr. are reviewed here in the context of the remarkable observation in the early 1950's that star formation continues in the present age. Prior to this observation, stars were thought to have formed only at the beginning of the universe. The main debate in the 1930's was whether stars had the young age of ~3 Gyr suggested by the expansion of the universe and the meteorites, or the old age of 10^{13} yr suggested by thermalized stellar motions. The adoption of Ambartsumian's claim of modern-day star formation was slow and mixed in the early 1950's. While some astronomers like Adriaan Blaauw immediately followed, adding more from their own data, others were slow to change. By the end of the 1950's, Lyman had deduced the basic theory for star formation that we would recognize today.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, From the International Meeting JENAM 2008 in Vienn

Impact of sheep grazing on juvenile sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax L., in tidal salt marshes

The diet of young of the year sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax L., from sheep grazed and ungrazed tidal salt marshes were com-pared qualitatively and quantitatively in Mont Saint-Michel Bay. In areas without grazing pressure, the vegetation gradient changes from a pioneer Puccinellia maritima dominated community at the tidal ¯at boundaries through a Atriplex portulacoides dominated community in the middle of the marsh to a mature Elymus pungens dominated community at the landward edge. The A. portula-coides community is highly productive and provides important quantities of litter which provides a habitat and good supply to substain high densities of the detrivorous amphipod Orchestia gammarellus. In the grazed areas, the vegetation is replaced by P. maritima communities, a low productive grass plant, and food availability and habitat suitability are reduced for O. gammarellus. Juvenile sea bass colonise the salt marsh at ¯ood during 43% of the spring tides which inundate the salt marsh creeks. They forage inside the marsh and feed mainly on O. gammarellus in the ungrazed marshes. In grazed areas, this amphipod is replaced by other species and juvenile sea bass consume less food from the marsh. This illustrates a direct effect of a terrestrial herbivore on a coastal food web, and suggests that management of salt marsh is complex and promotion of one component of their biota could involve reductions in other species

Survey of Canadian Animal-Based Researchers' Views on the Three Rs: Replacement, Reduction and Refinement

The ‘Three Rs’ tenet (replacement, reduction, refinement) is a widely accepted cornerstone of Canadian and international policies on animal-based science. The Canadian Council on Animal Care (CCAC) initiated this web-based survey to obtain greater understanding of ‘principal investigators’ and ‘other researchers’ (i.e. graduate students, post-doctoral researchers etc.) views on the Three Rs, and to identify obstacles and opportunities for continued implementation of the Three Rs in Canada. Responses from 414 participants indicate that researchers currently do not view the goal of replacement as achievable. Researchers prefer to use enough animals to ensure quality data is obtained rather than using the minimum and potentially waste those animals if a problem occurs during the study. Many feel that they already reduce animal numbers as much as possible and have concerns that further reduction may compromise research. Most participants were ambivalent about re-use, but expressed concern that the practice could compromise experimental outcomes. In considering refinement, many researchers feel there are situations where animals should not receive pain relieving drugs because it may compromise scientific outcomes, although there was strong support for the Three Rs strategy of conducting animal welfare-related pilot studies, which were viewed as useful for both animal welfare and experimental design. Participants were not opposed to being offered “assistance” to implement the Three Rs, so long as the input is provided in a collegial manner, and from individuals who are perceived as experts. It may be useful for animal use policymakers to consider what steps are needed to make replacement a more feasible goal. In addition, initiatives that offer researchers greater practical and logistical support with Three Rs implementation may be useful. Encouragement and financial support for Three Rs initiatives may result in valuable contributions to Three Rs knowledge and improve welfare for animals used in science

Catastrophism versus Uniformitarianism in the History of Star Formation

Several early-literate traditions that have come down to us include some view of star formation. That of the Babylonians (and of the Old Testament Jews which derives from the Babylonian) take star formation to have been a single event, part and parcel with the formation of earth, sun, planets, and whatever else exists. Greek mythology, on the other hand, describes a series of events, deriving from interactions between the Gods and mankind. Egyptian pharaohs could join the stars (presumably happy events), while the Chinese tradition expected changes in the heavens normally of unpleasant purport. This separation of views between "long ago, when conditions were very different" (catastrophism) and "ongoing, hence amenable to study" (uniformitarianism) continued until the middle of the 20th century, and we explore some of the events that led to mainstream opinion switching back and forth and to the gradual convergence to the on-going point of view. © 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Until Somebody Hears Me: Parental Voice and Advocacy in Special Education Decision-Making

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The original publication is available at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1467-8578.2006.00430.x.When a family finds out their child has a disability, they enter the world of special education which has its own terminology, rules, settings and personnel. In addition to grappling with the meaning of their child's special needs, families are also thrown into the role of principle advocate for their child. The research study reported here presents the findings from focus groups conducted in the United States of America with 27 diverse families on their efforts to obtain the best educational outcomes for their children. In this article, Robyn Hess, Amy Molina and Elizabeth Kozleski bring their collective past experiences, as a school psychologist, bilingual counsellor and special education teacher respectively, to bear on this topic and frame the issue from a systemic perspective. They argue that engaging in conversation with families around their needs, as well as assisting them in their efforts to advocate for their child, is the first step in creating more equal partnerships between parents of children with special needs and educational professionals